The top two teams from each group advance to a group of 16 teams. A win at this level accounts for 3 points, a defeat for 0 points, and a draw accounts for only one point to both teams. An astounding number of results are possible. Even though teams may tie in terms of points on their quest to qualify for a second round, rules exist to break these ties.
One rule states that the team with the greatest number of net goal difference goals scored minus goals received to that point in the tournament will proceed. If that figure is the same for both teams, then the particular match between these two tying teams is considered. Finally if a tie still persists, a coin toss determines which team advances. At the core, the model also considered historic goal scoring records for winning, drawing and losing teams. Obviously, teams that win a match score more goals than teams that either draw or lose.
After the 16 teams are classified, they engage in a single-elimination, bracket-style tournament like March Madness , leaving eight, then four and then two teams for a final game. These additional 16 games including a game to determine third place among the two losers of semifinals were also simulated. After running 50, iterations, the model probabilistically channels each team into an eventual tournament win, and calculates its odds. Depending on certain ranking assumptions, the odds calculations may vary significantly.
However, a robust approach that considers both historic and current rankings yielded the following results:. FIGURE 1 Predicted winning margins horizontal axis and observed winning margins vertical axis for the pre-game favourite listed first for each game. Did upsets occur at the same rate as expected by the algorithm? For the RWC, the algorithm expected its favourites to win 38 games. Favorites ended up winning 40 games, so there were two more wins by favourites than expected.
In the tournament, favourites were expected to win 42 games and they won 41, so there was one fewer win by favourites than expected. Aggregating and RWC results, favourites were expected to win 80 of the 93 games and they won The stalemate is broken by comparing average prediction errors.
For the algorithm, the prediction error for each game is calculated as the difference between the observed winning margin and the expected winning margin. Archived predictions for the RWC and other rugby competitions are available at rugbyvision. Business Culture Politics Science Sports.
Subscribe to our free weekly betting mailer which will be coming out a couple of times a week during RWC and will include our best and value bets. Wales boast the only unbeaten record in this pool and they secured their quarter final place with a hard earned win over Fiji on Wednesday. Whilst the margin of victory came in just under where the handicap had been set it was Fiji who scored the first 10 points of the game. Wales hit back to lead at half time but Fiji were in front early in the second period.
Wales eventually pulled away and secured a bonus point in the process. Wales won their first 2 matches in contrasting styles. They came through their opening game with a bonus point win over Georgia, just covering a pre-match handicap of around The crunch game in this pool always looked likely to be Wales' clash with Australia and the Welsh edged it Wales started as narrow favourites to win that game and they took control with a half time lead.
The Wallabies hit back to get within a point only for Wales to strecth that lead to 4 with a 71st minute penalty and they held on in a frantic finish. Should Australia win their final pool match against Georgia on Friday Wales will still need to win this game in order to top the pool. Uruguay were given 50 points start for their most recent outing against Australia and they stayed within that handicap with the game finishing in the Wallabies favour half time Uruguay started their campaign with a huge surprise as they turned Fiji over They were given almost 30 points start by the bookmakers for that game and the result was hailed as the finest in their history.
After that Uruguay came unstuck against Georgia, going down Should Wales beat Fiji on Wednesday then the Wallabies will be already assured of a quarter final place regardless of the outcome of this game and they will have to wait until the weekend to see whether they will meet England or France in the first of the knockout rounds.
A victory over Uruguay at the weekend half time comprised of 7 tries although the margin of victory fell short of where the bookmakers had set the pre-match handicap. The big clash in this pool saw Australia lose to Wales where a Wallabies fightback from a half time deficit came up just short.
Australia also put in a strong second half display to overhaul Fiji in their opening fixture with 4 of their 6 tries arriving in the final 24 minutes of the match to land a bonus point win. Georgia's hopes of a quarter final place evaporated in their third outing when they were thrashed by Fiji. They were given a 7. In earlier results Georgia lost their opening match of the tournament to Wales half time before putting themselves on the board with a bonus point victory over Uruguay, covering a minus handicap of Going back to RWC Georgia won 2 and lost 2 of their pool matches with the victories coming against the 2 supposed weaker nations they faced, Tonga and Namibia They could still finish third in this pool if Fiji lose to Wales earlier in the week but for that to happen they would also need to turn the Wallabies over in this game.
Betting on the Rugby World Cup? Claim your 1st deposit bonus of up to R2, here. Quotes are an average of what was on offer from a selection of bookmakers at the time of writing and are subject to change. Sportingbet, Claim your 1 st deposit bonus of up to R2, here.
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